1, Wealth and economic expansion
Economic expansion drives increased demand for gold jewelry, gold for technology and long-term savings, so there is a positive correlation between the price of gold and economic growth. The impact of this factor is particularly significant in developing countries, including China and India, where gold is seen as a luxury good and a tool for preserving wealth.
2, Market risk and uncertainty
Market risk and uncertainty are also significant to the long-term performance of gold. Many investors see gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset, an effective hedge against currency devaluation, high inflation and other systemic risks. Basically, no one can perfectly cover the specific uncertainties that affect gold, but economic and political uncertainties may account for a large proportion of the explanation.
3, Opportunity costs
Opportunity cost is the value of the option with the greatest benefit among those we did not choose after we have made a particular choice, so when an investor chooses gold, the interest rate on an almost risk-free public bond becomes the opportunity cost of holding gold. When the rate of inflation is greater than the interest rate on bonds, gold becomes a very attractive investment. Also because the price of gold is denominated in US dollars, when the dollar weakens, it also pushes up investors' willingness to buy gold.
4, Market momentum and parts
Price momentum or similar trend changes may also further strengthen or weaken gold performance. in January 2020, global gold ETF and similar holdings rose by 61 tons, with net inflows of US$3.1 billion, taking total holdings to a record high of 2,947 tons. The attitude of global investors can also be observed based on the number of long/short positions left in global gold futures.
